In Pira’s lifetime, epochal developments have included the ceaseless proliferation of books, magazines and newspapers into previously uncharted niches and markets as well as the permeation of branded packaging into consumer psyches and stores around the globe. Printed tonnages have soared and will continue to do so as these phenomena are echoed in India, China and Brazil.

Yet while overall global production volumes show no sign of an Internet-induced sag, the virility of any industry is defined by its profit margins. And, in terms of putting ink on paper or plastics, these remain feeble. High energy costs have simply sped up the process of commoditisation.
The printed goods industry has grown so used to the slim-profit environment, it has begun to adapt to the changed environment and evolve new business models, which largely add up to a resignation from manufacturing and enthusiastic membership of a new club: services.

This isn’t a new process. We’ve seen it happen in the IT industry where metal-banging computer-makers like IBM sleekly morphed into software solutions providers. GE went from making fridges to providing car loans and owning network TV stations. Ciba, Pira’s
parent company, has also begun the shift into value-added services from chemicals production.

Now, as well as putting ink on substrates, commercial printers perform many other activities such as graphic design, data handling, Web services, subscription management, enveloping and wrapping, mailing, distribution, warehousing and fulfilment. As the traditional supply chains are redefined, print is difficult to define along with print management, logistics and packaging systems. Past and future growth are largely from these new services in the US and EU.

Economic development, linked to advertising expenditure, will continue to be the key factor for print markets but there are several others. The most important of these other factors will probably be demographic changes, as the population of the world rises over the next ten years from 6.1 billion to 7.2 billion and as literacy increases significantly.

In 2005 Pira International calculated the value of the global printing market at e467.4 billion, up 14 per cent since 2000 and forecast to reach e552.8 billion in 2010. Printing represents just over 1.6 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005; adding the value of consumables and equipment, the total print and supply sector accounts for around 2.5 per cent of the world’s economic activity.
North America, Western Europe and Asia share most of the market, with Latin America, eastern Europe and Oceania sharing the rest of the market. The emerging regions – Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia – will grow most strongly. Asia will be driven by the very powerful Chinese and Indian sectors.

Over the ten-year period, the fastest-growing markets are China, India, South Korea, Poland, Russia, Ireland and Mexico. Printed packaging will be the major market segment, followed by advertising, magazine and commercial print. In terms of printed process, offset will continue to dominate but it has peaked, with digital processes growing most quickly and worth over 10 per cent during 2005, including wide-format. Digital printing, including wide format inkjet, will grow fastest and at the expense of all conventional processes. Only flexo is close to maintaining its market share between 2000 and 2010; silk screen and letterpress printing show decline in real terms over the period.

Conventional printing, including finishing and spares, dominates spending but the fastest growth is enjoyed by digital equipment, including wide format inkjet. More digital presses will be installed in mono (from 60,000 to 79,000); colour machines increase more quickly from 10,000 to 23,500 in 2010.

Graphic film use peaked in 2002; its use is set to decline rapidly as printers adopt CTP. In offset, the market for CTP plates outsold conventional plates globally during 2003–04, although this is not the case in developing markets.

Overall the world’s plate market will grow from 320km2 (1km2 = 1 million square metres) in 2000 to over 450km2 in 2010, reflecting the drop in run lengths, despite digital printing taking a significant share.

In 2005 the global ink market had a value of e17.5 billion and a volume of over 4.6 million tonnes. This includes digital colorants and inkjet inks; the industrial sector accounts for over e2.1 billion during 2005 and rapid future growth is forecast. These products have significant price premium over conventional inks, a very important market sector for ink makers.

Ink sales generally follow the pattern of print production, although the average value of ink in developed markets is higher than in emerging regions, reflecting the greater use of colour and generally higher-quality materials and formulations for particular applications. In all regions the value increases more quickly than the tonnage, partly due to the higher digital growth, increasing use of colour and more specialist formulations in developed markets.

Printing will consume 237 million tonnes of paper and board during 2005, up by almost 7 per cent from 2000, with strong growth to 300 million tonnes in 2010. At 70 million tonnes, corrugated board for packaging and display is the largest segment. Come 2010, newsprint, the major paper grade in 2000, is overtaken by coated wood-free on tonnage and area printed.

This is largely because of the stagnant or declining demand for printed newspapers as immediate, breaking 24-hour rolling news is available online and on mobile devices. Yet, like printing, we expect the newspaper industry to adapt and survive. The most popular content-led websites tend to be run by ‘old media’ brands. Most of the must-read blogs are by well-known newspaper or TV journalists. Newspapers are also having to change their content to provide ‘something different’ to commoditised news. More comment, more columnists, more features... even free DVDs.

It is this adaptability to a changed environment, observable in both print and publishing today, that fills us with hope for the next 75 years. This is my final foreword to our annual Profit Through Innovation book as I retire in 2006. However, I hand over the baton to my successor, David Simmonds, with the industry innovating, adapting and prospering in a way that would have been thought impossible only a few years ago. Rumours of print’s extinction are much exaggerated.